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-0.03 Prediction Marketing (ayeshaasiddiqi.substack.com)
3 points by jbegley 2 hours ago | 0 comments on HN | Neutral Editorial · vv3.4 · 2026-02-24
Article Heatmap
Preamble: -0.15 — Preamble P Article 1: ND — Freedom, Equality, Brotherhood Article 1: No Data — Freedom, Equality, Brotherhood 1 Article 2: ND — Non-Discrimination Article 2: No Data — Non-Discrimination 2 Article 3: ND — Life, Liberty, Security Article 3: No Data — Life, Liberty, Security 3 Article 4: ND — No Slavery Article 4: No Data — No Slavery 4 Article 5: ND — No Torture Article 5: No Data — No Torture 5 Article 6: ND — Legal Personhood Article 6: No Data — Legal Personhood 6 Article 7: ND — Equality Before Law Article 7: No Data — Equality Before Law 7 Article 8: ND — Right to Remedy Article 8: No Data — Right to Remedy 8 Article 9: ND — No Arbitrary Detention Article 9: No Data — No Arbitrary Detention 9 Article 10: ND — Fair Hearing Article 10: No Data — Fair Hearing 10 Article 11: ND — Presumption of Innocence Article 11: No Data — Presumption of Innocence 11 Article 12: -0.13 — Privacy 12 Article 13: +0.15 — Freedom of Movement 13 Article 14: ND — Asylum Article 14: No Data — Asylum 14 Article 15: ND — Nationality Article 15: No Data — Nationality 15 Article 16: ND — Marriage & Family Article 16: No Data — Marriage & Family 16 Article 17: -0.20 — Property 17 Article 18: +0.05 — Freedom of Thought 18 Article 19: +0.29 — Freedom of Expression 19 Article 20: +0.10 — Assembly & Association 20 Article 21: -0.09 — Political Participation 21 Article 22: -0.10 — Social Security 22 Article 23: -0.15 — Work & Equal Pay 23 Article 24: ND — Rest & Leisure Article 24: No Data — Rest & Leisure 24 Article 25: -0.10 — Standard of Living 25 Article 26: ND — Education Article 26: No Data — Education 26 Article 27: +0.05 — Cultural Participation 27 Article 28: -0.25 — Social & International Order 28 Article 29: -0.10 — Duties to Community 29 Article 30: 0.00 — No Destruction of Rights 30
Negative Neutral Positive No Data
Aggregates
Weighted Mean -0.03 Unweighted Mean -0.04
Max +0.29 Article 19 Min -0.25 Article 28
Signal 15 No Data 16
Confidence 21% Volatility 0.14 (Low)
Negative 9 Channels E: 0.6 S: 0.4
SETL -0.06 Structural-dominant
Evidence: High: 1 Medium: 7 Low: 7 No Data: 16
Theme Radar
Foundation Security Legal Privacy & Movement Personal Expression Economic & Social Cultural Order & Duties Foundation: -0.15 (1 articles) Security: 0.00 (0 articles) Legal: 0.00 (0 articles) Privacy & Movement: 0.01 (2 articles) Personal: -0.08 (2 articles) Expression: 0.10 (3 articles) Economic & Social: -0.12 (3 articles) Cultural: 0.05 (1 articles) Order & Duties: -0.12 (3 articles)
Domain Context Profile
Element Modifier Affects Note
Privacy
Substack privacy policy not directly observable in provided content; standard platform privacy expectations apply.
Terms of Service
Substack terms of service not observable in provided content; platform standard terms apply.
Accessibility -0.05
Article 19
Content appears to be text-based article with semantic HTML; image alt-text not provided in snippet.
Mission 0.00
Author bio describes 'history and future, from the perpetual present' and forecasting work; neutral positioning.
Editorial Code
No observable editorial standards or code of conduct on domain.
Ownership
Individual author publication; Substack platform operator. No observable ownership barriers to speech.
Access Model +0.10
Article 19
Article marked as isAccessibleForFree:true; open access publishing supports information distribution.
Ad/Tracking -0.05
Article 12
Substack platform uses analytics and may employ tracking; not explicitly addressed in content.
Score Breakdown
-0.15
Preamble Preamble
Medium F:cynicism
Editorial
-0.15
Structural
ND
SETL
ND
Combined
ND
Context Modifier
ND

Subtitle frames prediction markets as 'liquidity extraction before a liquidity crisis'—framing that suggests financial system manipulation and precarity. No explicit engagement with dignity or universal rights principles. Neutral structural access does not offset editorial framing.

ND
Article 1 Freedom, Equality, Brotherhood

No observable content addressing human equality, inherent dignity, or reason and conscience.

ND
Article 2 Non-Discrimination

No observable content addressing discrimination or protected characteristics.

ND
Article 3 Life, Liberty, Security

No observable content addressing right to life, liberty, or security.

ND
Article 4 No Slavery

No observable content addressing slavery or servitude.

ND
Article 5 No Torture

No observable content addressing torture or cruel treatment.

ND
Article 6 Legal Personhood

No observable content addressing right to recognition as person before law.

ND
Article 7 Equality Before Law

No observable content addressing equal protection under law.

ND
Article 8 Right to Remedy

No observable content addressing remedies for rights violations.

ND
Article 9 No Arbitrary Detention

No observable content addressing arbitrary arrest or detention.

ND
Article 10 Fair Hearing

No observable content addressing fair and public hearing.

ND
Article 11 Presumption of Innocence

No observable content addressing presumption of innocence or retroactive punishment.

-0.13
Article 12 Privacy
Low P:tracking
Editorial
-0.10
Structural
-0.05
SETL
-0.07
Combined
ND
Context Modifier
ND

Editorial content does not engage with privacy protections. Substack platform may employ user tracking via analytics; Preamble framing suggests financial system extraction logic without privacy safeguards perspective.

+0.15
Article 13 Freedom of Movement
Medium P:open_access
Editorial
ND
Structural
+0.15
SETL
ND
Combined
ND
Context Modifier
ND

Article published with free access (isAccessibleForFree:true) supports freedom of movement and international communication; individual choice to publish openly.

ND
Article 14 Asylum

No observable content addressing asylum or refuge.

ND
Article 15 Nationality

No observable content addressing nationality.

ND
Article 16 Marriage & Family

No observable content addressing marriage or family.

-0.20
Article 17 Property
Medium F:extraction A:wealth_critique
Editorial
-0.20
Structural
ND
SETL
ND
Combined
ND
Context Modifier
ND

Core framing treats prediction markets as 'liquidity extraction'—explicitly positioning financial activity as property/wealth seizure from broader market. Implicit critique of speculative wealth accumulation without addressing legitimate property rights or protections.

+0.05
Article 18 Freedom of Thought
Low F:individual_voice
Editorial
+0.05
Structural
ND
SETL
ND
Combined
ND
Context Modifier
ND

Individual author exercising freedom of thought and conscience through independent publication; mild positive for self-expression platform.

+0.29
Article 19 Freedom of Expression
High P:open_access A:public_discourse F:critical_analysis
Editorial
+0.20
Structural
+0.30
SETL
-0.17
Combined
ND
Context Modifier
ND

Content engages in critical opinion-formation and public discourse on financial systems. Published with free access; no paywalls or access restrictions. Author exercises freedom to impart information and ideas. Substack platform supports individual voice without editorial gatekeeping.

+0.10
Article 20 Assembly & Association
Medium A:collective_concern
Editorial
+0.15
Structural
0.00
SETL
+0.15
Combined
ND
Context Modifier
ND

Content implicitly addresses collective economic concern ('liquidity crisis'); framing suggests systems-level risk that affects broader public. Mild positive for engagement with collective well-being question, though not explicit advocacy for association.

-0.09
Article 21 Political Participation
Medium F:system_critique
Editorial
-0.15
Structural
0.00
SETL
-0.15
Combined
ND
Context Modifier
ND

Content critiques financial markets as extractive but does not engage with democratic governance or participation principles. No observable discussion of democratic legitimacy or public decision-making in financial regulation.

-0.10
Article 22 Social Security
Medium F:wealth_inequality
Editorial
-0.10
Structural
ND
SETL
ND
Combined
ND
Context Modifier
ND

Implicit criticism of financial extraction suggests awareness of economic disparity, but framing does not address social security, cultural participation, or right to work. Critique is system-level, not rights-protective.

-0.15
Article 23 Work & Equal Pay
Low F:labor_neutrality
Editorial
-0.15
Structural
ND
SETL
ND
Combined
ND
Context Modifier
ND

Content addresses financial markets but not labor, work conditions, or fair compensation principles. Framing treats prediction markets as speculative capital activity without engagement with right to work or just wages.

ND
Article 24 Rest & Leisure

No observable content addressing rest, leisure, or working hours.

-0.10
Article 25 Standard of Living
Low F:financial_system
Editorial
-0.10
Structural
ND
SETL
ND
Combined
ND
Context Modifier
ND

Content describes financial system risk ('liquidity crisis') without engagement with rights to adequate standard of living, health, or security. System critique does not extend to protective social vision.

ND
Article 26 Education

No observable content addressing education or human development.

+0.05
Article 27 Cultural Participation
Low A:cultural_analysis
Editorial
+0.05
Structural
ND
SETL
ND
Combined
ND
Context Modifier
ND

Article engages in cultural and intellectual critique of contemporary financial practices; mild positive for participation in cultural life of community.

-0.25
Article 28 Social & International Order
Medium F:system_failure A:crisis_framing
Editorial
-0.25
Structural
ND
SETL
ND
Combined
ND
Context Modifier
ND

Core framing positions financial system as fundamentally extractive and crisis-prone. Implies social order dysfunction without articulating vision for just social and international order. Critique of existing order does not propose UDHR-aligned alternatives.

-0.10
Article 29 Duties to Community
Low F:individual_responsibility
Editorial
-0.10
Structural
ND
SETL
ND
Combined
ND
Context Modifier
ND

Content does not engage with duties toward community or limits on rights exercise. Financial critique framing is descriptive of system behavior, not normative on communal responsibility.

0.00
Article 30 No Destruction of Rights
Low
Editorial
0.00
Structural
0.00
SETL
ND
Combined
ND
Context Modifier
ND

No observable content suggesting misuse of rights to destroy other rights. Publication itself does not restrict others' freedoms.

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build fc56cf0+0q5s · 2026-02-25 01:32 UTC