This feels like a short coming of western business/stock market thinking. Focusing on profit within the next few quarters, and not caring about the longer term consequences. For all it's flaws and shady business practises at least China can think beyond a single fiscal year.

It is wise for these Chinese fabs to eventually use a very aggressive dumping strategy to price well below cost push out other players forever, especially in DRAM.

But right now it seems they can max out their supply capacity without selling below cost.

Appears to me like China's endless state led (often unproductive) investment in semiconductor manufacturing subsidies (for decades) is about to pay off with some industry dominance soon.

Like the electric vehicle sector.

Once established, the Chinese vendors will retain most the market share if the quality is ok. The SK/JP vendors are making a big mistake.

Legacy DRAM is still over half of Samsung and SK hynix's production capacity. That's where the volume pain actually lands while they're betting everything on HBM4.

https://a.aliexpress.com/_mssanU1

> CXMT is in the process of converting wafer capacity equivalent to about 20 percent of its total DRAM output — some 60,000 wafers per month — at its Shanghai plant to the fourth-generation HBM3 chip production

If that's the case, then why are the cheapest options I can find online multiple times that much?

  Apple has planned to explore cooperation with Chinese memory chip manufacturers Yangtze Storage (YMTC) and Changxin Storage (CXMT) to strive for more favorable supply contracts [from the big three]

There were crazy bubble economics schemes that meant doomed startups got unix boxes for free.

When the bubble popped, the workstation vendors hit a triple whammy: Inferior $/perf, unlimited used inventory at low prices, and an economic downturn.

The same exact thing is happening now, except the hardware is being jammed into data center models.

Anyway, when the bubble pops, people making affordable consumer stuff will be fine (like this CXMT company).

People that went all-in on firing all non-hyperscaler customers (like micron/crucial) will find they’re building the wrong chips for end-user devices, there is no server market anymore (for a few years), and they have a total addressable market of maybe 1000 distressed companies, globally.

I predict the people making these decisions and destroying their companies to juice Q2 2026 financial outlook numbers will genuinely be surprised when the bankruptcies start.

After reading articles about CXMT and repeatedly reviewing the comments here - my take is there's nothing in play that will lead to reasonably priced RAM anytime soon.

If I'm wrong please illuminate us. We could use some hope.

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1987-03-28-mn-698-st...