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+0.34 280M e-bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars (theconversation.com)
789 points by rglullis 831 days ago | 733 comments on HN | Neutral Editorial · v3.7 ·
Summary Sustainable Development & Access to Information Advocates
This article from The Conversation presents scientific analysis of global energy transition through the lens of e-bike adoption and reduced oil demand. The content advocates for evidence-based understanding of environmental sustainability and technological change, while the platform's open-access model, named authorship, and editorial independence actively support human rights principles around free expression, education, and participation in scientific knowledge.
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Preamble: +0.33 — Preamble P Article 1: +0.23 — Freedom, Equality, Brotherhood 1 Article 2: +0.22 — Non-Discrimination 2 Article 3: +0.13 — Life, Liberty, Security 3 Article 4: +0.08 — No Slavery 4 Article 5: +0.08 — No Torture 5 Article 6: +0.13 — Legal Personhood 6 Article 7: +0.22 — Equality Before Law 7 Article 8: +0.10 — Right to Remedy 8 Article 9: +0.10 — No Arbitrary Detention 9 Article 10: +0.15 — Fair Hearing 10 Article 11: +0.15 — Presumption of Innocence 11 Article 12: +0.19 — Privacy 12 Article 13: +0.37 — Freedom of Movement 13 Article 14: +0.23 — Asylum 14 Article 15: +0.15 — Nationality 15 Article 16: +0.13 — Marriage & Family 16 Article 17: +0.27 — Property 17 Article 18: +0.38 — Freedom of Thought 18 Article 19: +0.78 — Freedom of Expression 19 Article 20: +0.45 — Assembly & Association 20 Article 21: +0.38 — Political Participation 21 Article 22: +0.33 — Social Security 22 Article 23: +0.28 — Work & Equal Pay 23 Article 24: +0.18 — Rest & Leisure 24 Article 25: +0.75 — Standard of Living 25 Article 26: +0.57 — Education 26 Article 27: +0.58 — Cultural Participation 27 Article 28: +0.33 — Social & International Order 28 Article 29: +0.32 — Duties to Community 29 Article 30: +0.13 — No Destruction of Rights 30
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Max +0.78 Article 19 Min +0.08 Article 4
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Evidence: High: 4 Medium: 12 Low: 15 No Data: 0
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Foundation Security Legal Privacy & Movement Personal Expression Economic & Social Cultural Order & Duties Foundation: 0.26 (3 articles) Security: 0.10 (3 articles) Legal: 0.14 (6 articles) Privacy & Movement: 0.24 (4 articles) Personal: 0.26 (3 articles) Expression: 0.54 (3 articles) Economic & Social: 0.39 (4 articles) Cultural: 0.57 (2 articles) Order & Duties: 0.26 (3 articles)
HN Discussion 20 top-level · 30 replies
thelastgallon 2023-11-17 15:18 UTC link
We don't need a 4000 lb vehicle to move a ~200 lb person.

In order of efficiency:

(1) Walk

(2) Unicycle, roller skate, scooter (no battery, very little material)

(2) Bike

(3) Electric bike (and all forms of newfangled electric: escooters, segways)

(4) Electric motorbike or scooter

(5) Mass transit (can be public/private) transportation: Electric trains

(6) Mass transit (can be public/private) transportation: Electric buses

(7) Zipline

(8) Carpools on BEV

(9) Carpools on PHEV

(10) BEV

We can stop buying gas cars. Pollution kills 10 million EVERY year[1]. For context, the cumulative COVID deaths over 3 years are ~6.5 million. And fossil fuels are subsidized (Trillions of dollars per year). For 2022, this is $7 trillion[2]. Why are we subsidizing fuels that are proven to cause all kinds of diseases (nearly everything except STIs).

[1] Air Pollution Kills 10 Million People a Year. Why Do We Accept That as Normal?: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/08/opinion/environment/air-p...

[2] Why Are Governments Still Subsidizing Fossil Fuels? https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-10-16/climat...

[3] https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/08/24/fossil-fuel...

Mountain_Skies 2023-11-17 16:06 UTC link
Eliminating the daily commute for those who have jobs where in person presence isn't essential beats all other forms of transportation. But activists, cities, and greenwash companies have all shown their true face, each for their own reasons of self-interest.
k_dumez 2023-11-17 16:17 UTC link
"In the United States, a staggering 60% of all car trips cover less than 10km."

Being lucky enough to live in a walkable city (NYC) this is insane to me. The world is so car-brained.

logankeenan 2023-11-17 16:19 UTC link
I sold my car more than a year ago now and I’ve been using an E-bike as a replacement. I work from home so I didn’t really need a car that often and can coordinate with my wife when I need to use the family vehicle. It hasn’t been too bad and we can always rely on Uber if something comes down to it. We live close to stores and it’s more convenient to use the bike than a car when we need to go get a few things. For instance, I can park right next to the entrance of all the stores.

I think he bikes can be a great replacement for a car for certain scenarios and city layout. I live in the Des Moines, Iowa Metropolitan area where we have a large bike trail infrastructure that I can use to get around the metropolitan area

davidw 2023-11-17 16:20 UTC link
I do almost all the grocery shopping for our family of 4 with a Rad Runner Plus with a large basket and bag.

I love that bike. Even as someone pretty comfortable getting around on a 'regular' bike, having that extra power just makes it a really easy choice for more trips compared to the car. If it's hot out, it is so much nicer to hop on the bike and get an instant breeze compared to a hot stuffy car. If it's cold out, I can really layer up and not worry about sweating because I overdressed. I just use the motor more.

Edit: I'll add that like many things in life, it doesn't have to be all or nothing. We still have an automobile that we use, but the bike has replaced a lot of car trips. For some people a bike might not replace as many. Some might be able to ditch the car entirely. But it all helps!

uoaei 2023-11-17 16:21 UTC link
It's good that the batteries are many times smaller than electric cars and trucks. I still have a problem with the accounting being focused on what the consumer directly experiences rather than the full lifecycle of the vehicle (manufacturing, logistics of vehicle and spare parts, and disposal) but I don't think it changes the conclusions much except maybe a minor edit to the ranking by kilometer-people per ton of CO2e emitted when compared to other forms of transportation.

I did the math on my 2000s Jeep and I would need to drive it for about 20,000 miles (5 years of usage in my case) in order just to emit the same as the production of a single Model S battery, not including building the rest of the car and bringing it to the consumer. I think we could do a lot better to emphasize buying used cars/bikes/everything especially if we reorient the accounting to reflect the emissions that consumers are typically insulated from. Frontloading our emissions kind of defeats the purpose of Nordhaus-style climate economics accounting...

crawdog 2023-11-17 16:26 UTC link
This is an area that government subsidies could really influence change in urban planning and cutting oil demand. If there was a similar subsidy on bikes as there are on electric cars, I would expect the push back against bike infrastructure would become less. Right now in the Bay Area through poor design and aging infrastructure there is push back on bike lanes. An example is the Richmond bridge, which has a protected bike lane taking a 3rd lane of traffic that could see a larger number of riders if more ebikes become used. Likewise for the Bay Bridge, whose bike lane is a ghost town in the mornings when commute traffic is worst. This would be less of a problem if the lane went entirely to the city.
simmanian 2023-11-17 16:32 UTC link
I bought an ebike to complement my aging 2007 Toyota instead of replacing it outright with another car. I use the bike for most light use cases within the 10 mile radius and still lean into using my car when needed. Here are my takes on ebikes.

Pros:

- Ebikes help people punch above their weight class, allowing them to bike farther and faster

- Going uphill is much easier

- Ebikes encourage people to be more adventurous and discover local scenic routes

Cons:

- Good ebikes cost as much as my 2007 toyota

- If you drive a hub motor and you get a flat (and you will eventually), it's harder to fix it up

- They tend to be rather heavy (harder to drive without assistance), and lighter ones cost a lot of $$$

- I am worried my bike may get stolen a little more

For those interested in getting an entry level ebike and living in US, I recommend REI's gen 1.1 and 1.2 ebikes. They're 40% off(!) right now, which seems to be a rare discount for ebikes.

underbluewaters 2023-11-17 16:36 UTC link
I feel lucky every single day that I can take a 10 minute e-bike ride into the office. I say lucky because I know it's not available to everyone, but it's so good for my mental health to get outside every morning and afternoon. That experience can't be replicated with a Tesla no matter how affordable they might become.
josefresco 2023-11-17 16:40 UTC link
What's soured me on electric scooters and bikes is the complete lack of repair infrastructure. My electric scooter was not cheap and when it broke (out of warranty) my local bike shop wouldn't touch it.
camgunz 2023-11-17 16:45 UTC link
I've said it before and I'll say it again: building the future around cars of any kind is completely unsustainable. We cannot reproduce the rates of rich world car ownership in the developing world without mass catastrophe (raw materials/labor needed for construction and maintenance, raw materials/labor/space needed for roads and parking lots, literal tons of waste--batteries, tires, steel, plastic, foam--, energy needed--most cars are driven by a single driver, pollution generated by all of this--e.g. mining byproducts and tire burn off).

To be completely explicit:

- If we're serious about meeting the 2030 "halve our emissions" and 2050 "zero our emissions" goals, EVs will not get there. Banning gas/diesel cars gets there. The only way that's even remotely possible is to heavily subsidize EVs (probably honestly just providing free swaps) and start making it way way more easier to get by w/o a car.

- The only problem that self-driving cars will ever solve is where to put VC money in a zero interest rate world. We've had freight trains and mass transit for centuries.

I get that whole economies are built around producing/maintaining cars and related infra, but it was wildly disastrous. We're well into sunk cost fallacy territory here, like, on a species level.

PopAlongKid 2023-11-17 16:52 UTC link
Another comment mentioned pros and cons for the user of the ebike.

As a frequent pedestrian on the nearby heavily-used trails, I see a number of cons for everyone else:

Despite a prohibition on motorized vehicles on these trails, they exploit a loophole for handicapped users, and the agency in charge refuses to do anything to fix it.

Even if it makes sense to allow these motorized vehicles, the 15 MPH speed limit is frequently violated. Many of these people (especially scooters) don't wear helmets and speed recklessly, zipping between walkers, joggers, people pushing toddlers in strollers, etc. I saw a scooter user painfully wipe out just a few weeks ago. I'm sadly awaiting the first case of serious injury or fatality (to the user or others) caused by an uninsured speeding e-bike or scooter.

trashface 2023-11-17 16:54 UTC link
I've seen a lot of these on my local walking path. Which is exactly that - a narrow, paved walking path, in a park.

Sometimes they will use their horn to alert peds walking they are passing - which is like, a car horn, because they need that for roads. I've never been "horned" but I've heard it and its not pleasant. Other times they just blow right by no warning.

And unlike walkers or bikers, I almost never see them coming back the other way. I think what has happened is they discovered the path is a quick cut-through to roads they want to get to on the other side.

Last time I was out I saw a literal motorcycle on the path. It wasn't a big one, but no doubt, it was a straight up gas-spewing motorcycle, no question about it. I had to laugh in between choking on its fumes.

I'm used to getting buzzed by cyclists but this is a bit much, and I've been walking less in the worse-affected park. Another park I walk in is a national park and the rangers don't tolerate that kind of crap. But the state and local parks don't have the manpower to enforce.

jjcoffman 2023-11-17 16:56 UTC link
Something I’ve thought a lot about is why don’t we have more support around golf cart and golf cart adjacent vehicles? They are fairly cheap compared to a car, can be BEV, drive around on most city streets, fractions of the weight and danger to pedestrians etc.

I know it doesn’t work in a lot of areas due to weather etc, but it seems like an obvious stop-gap solution.

It is also kind of “cool” to drive around in a golf cart

t43562 2023-11-17 17:27 UTC link
I live near a couple of big supermarkets. I can ride to them easily but it's an uphill journey back and my last bike was stolen.

If I solve the stealing problem by adding some sort of bike shed and get an electric bike I'll be very happy to ride most of the time to do shopping.

The key issue is that I don't live miles from shops that have all the basics. I think if zoning laws allowed it then many trips could be satisfied by a bike.

steve_adams_86 2023-11-17 18:40 UTC link
I hadn’t properly calculated how much my e bike saves in energy and oil until now. I always think of it in terms of maintenance reduced and fuel not consumed with the car I already own… But at this point it has completely prevented the purchase of second vehicle.

I bet it’s the same for many people like me. I guess I’m around year 3 of not needing a second car. In fact, I bought a home with a two car garage because I anticipate needing a second car… But not yet, and probably not in the foreseeable future.

It’s strange to think of. That happened very organically. I always had the expectation of needing the second car, but because of this cargo bike, I’ve found ways to avoid it. I always thought it was expensive ($7k CAD) but now I feel like it was really, really cheap.

I guess my car-centric brain didn’t believe I could actually avoid the second vehicle. There’s sacrifice for sure, it’s not a perfect replacement, but it’s a great one. I hope this trend continues.

jwr 2023-11-17 18:50 UTC link
I ride my E-bike every day, to office and back, and to run various errands (in a European city with some, but not enough biking infrastructure). After several months of doing this, sitting in the car trapped in traffic feels almost painful.

The bike gives me real freedom: I can stop pretty much anytime I want, I can park close to any destination without searching for a parking spot. Compared to this, being stuck in traffic in a car feels like being in jail. You can't stop, you can't move, you can't park, you have to follow the traffic.

Some common misconceptions:

1. An E-bike does not always replace a car, it replaces some/most of car trips and a second car in our case.

2. An E-bike is not for "the lazy people". Pedal assist (which is how this should be one, not like I've seen on some US bikes where you press a button and the bike goes brrrr) means that it's like normal biking, except with a tailwind. You can bike longer distances, you don't arrive sweaty, you can carry lots of cargo.

1323portloo 2023-11-17 19:11 UTC link
The average American is not going to accept an e-bike, moped or motorcycle as a replacement for their SUV/wheeled living room.* Autocycles are starting to become more mainstream thanks to companies like Polaris that focus on performance ATVs and 3-wheeled motorcycles. They would be a good middle ground for the future, either as electric or small-displacement gas engines.

They need better penetration in more states and need to have the same insurance and operator licensing as a regular 4-wheeled automobile. My state allows autocycles where you can use a regular drivers license, but the vehicle is insured as a motorcycle (higher premiums), you must wear a helmet (but my autocycle has an enclosed body?). One of the states that borders mine does not permit autocycles as an automobile, so I wouldn't be able to drive there for any reason.

* For years I have bicycle commuted and picked up groceries year-round in a place with hills that gets real winter snow. It takes a level of commitment that most people just do not have.

ak217 2023-11-17 19:16 UTC link
As e-bikes and electric cars multiply, managing the sustainable repair and total lifecycle of their batteries is going to become a lot more important.

Currently we treat e-bike batteries as disposable. When a battery dies, you are invited to throw it away in a designated way, and maybe if you're lucky it will be sent to a recycler that takes apart the casing, throws it away, melts down the cells and rebuilds them. If you're lucky, the e-bike or scooter has a standardized interface that takes a new battery.

This is wildly wasteful and unsustainable. Lithium ion batteries have a limited lifespan and are sensitive to being left discharged for a long time. When they break, it's usually a single cell out of a hundred that takes out the whole pack. It is entirely possible and safe to replace a pod that comprises 10% of the pack and prolong the life of the battery for several years, if the other pods check out.

This process should not be done by consumers. It requires local repair shops to be able to get training and certification in these repair procedures. We need "right to repair" laws for standardized swappable battery connectors and modular battery internals - this will make a huge difference in our future transportation carbon and resource footprint (of course, cars and overweight SUVs should be charged proportionately to their footprint too).

thepasswordis 2023-11-17 19:25 UTC link
I became very disillusioned with my “eco conscious” friends when they all went so hard against the bird scooters. These seemed like such an obvious and amazing solution to having too many gas powered cars in the road.

The cost was very low, the distance you could travel was high, and they were everywhere. This seemed like such a massive ray of hope.

When people started throwing them in the water, or damaging them intentionally it really made me question what their actual motivations were.

Shatnerz 2023-11-17 16:03 UTC link
How are you defining efficiency here? Is walking really more efficient than cycling? I would put walking as the least efficient manual powered methods mentioned.

Aside: I used to unicycle to work, and I have to say that it was both fantastic and much faster than walking while on a 27.5" wheel.

uoaei 2023-11-17 16:13 UTC link
I'd like to see the numbers in the full accounting, ie, how much carbon cost is added with Slack calls and the like. Somehow I think (analog) biking to the office wins over fully remote especially if you have video on for more than one hour per day.
kibwen 2023-11-17 16:16 UTC link
This is part of it, but people still need to leave their house sometime, and the best solution is one where people can survive without needing to own a car at all, which is nearly impossible in most of the US. We sold our nation's soul to cars, and now we're fighting to get it back.
LUmBULtERA 2023-11-17 16:21 UTC link
Is taking an ebike really that efficient if its going to be stolen? I kid.. because I have one. But I take 3 locks with me when I need to leave it unattended...
s0rce 2023-11-17 16:22 UTC link
I bike to work and don't mind my commute. I have to be in the office but even if I don't have in person (lab) work that day I still come in since the rest of the team is here. As long as you don't have a terrible office culture (I haven't had this experience in my career) or a long car commute its not so bad. I have done a longer car commute and it sucks.
rglullis 2023-11-17 16:24 UTC link
I take you don't have kids to take to school and you get all your groceries delivered to your door by someone on an e-bike?
hackernewds 2023-11-17 16:25 UTC link
walking 10km? in most US cities that is neither viable nor safe anymore
agent281 2023-11-17 16:28 UTC link
At least part of what keeps people from switching to more eco-friendly transportation is the protection arms race: people buy bigger cars because they are safer for their occupants. This leads to more injuries because bigger cars do more damage. Which means people are more concerned about injuries and buy bigger cars.

This is one area where I am concerned about the impacts of electric vehicles. They weigh a lot more than ICE cars and might cause more significant injuries for pedestrians. There probably ought to be some sort of tax or fee on vehicles that scales by weight. However, that would favor ICE vehicles over EVs so it may not be popular among the people who might otherwise be interested in such things.

throwawaysleep 2023-11-17 16:33 UTC link
Once I got a car, I became pretty unwilling to walk anywhere. Grocery store is 3 blocks from my house. I haven't walked in years. I would micro mobility though if there were a safe way to store the scooter.
burkaman 2023-11-17 16:39 UTC link
There are subsidies in a handful of cities and states in the US (https://ridereview.com/incentives/country/united-states), and there are bills for a federal subsidy with a decent amount of support in the House (https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/1685) and Senate (https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/881).

Also, shoutout to Vienna which has the coolest program I've heard of: businesses get subsidies for cargo e-bikes, and in return they loan them out to citizens for free. So if you've got a bunch of stuff to haul, you can borrow a cargo bike for free and use their incredibly good bike network to move your stuff. English summary: https://smartcity.wien.gv.at/en/approach/smart-city-made-sim....

foxyv 2023-11-17 16:45 UTC link
When we got our E-bike we had to get a trickle charger for our car because the battery would go flat from the battery's internal current.
vikramkr 2023-11-17 16:47 UTC link
Uhh, 10 kilometers is a LOT. I would not walk 6.2 miles for groceries. Or to work. Or to most things frankly
henry_viii 2023-11-17 16:48 UTC link
> a 4000 lb vehicle

Amateur numbers.

The F-150 Lightning is 6,500 lb (2,950 kg) and the Rivian trucks (R1T, R1S) are 7,000 lb (3,175 kg). The electric F-150 is 35% heavier than the ICE model.

Meanwhile:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37726539

radium3d 2023-11-17 16:53 UTC link
Yeah, e-bikes are great for good weather and living within 5 miles of your office. Tesla's are great for the rest and they do have windows at least for those of us who have to commute. And at least the 132MPGe of a model 3 is better than a gas powered motorcycle.
hurryer 2023-11-17 16:54 UTC link
Why do you care if they don't wear helmets?
cogman10 2023-11-17 16:55 UTC link
20k miles in 5 years of ownership? That's well below average mileage (13k miles for 1 year is average).

But further, if you want to talk about lifecycle, then why not consider a used Model S (or other ev) with 20k miles? It's not like EVs suddenly explode and need to be junked after 20k miles. The CO2 payoff period for an EV is around 25k miles, after that every mile driven on an EV ends up being less emissions wise than a regular ICE. Add to this the fact that EVs have extended lifetimes compared to ICE. 300 or 500k miles is more than possible with today's EVs.

willio58 2023-11-17 16:55 UTC link
Fully agreed. And while everything you said is super important and true, one piece that really makes me pumped about this movement to ditch cars is more around quality of life.

If you have to get in a car and drive to a parking lot somewhere to get groceries, commute to work, go out with friends, get healthcare, etc. You will obviously live a less healthy life both physically but also mentally because of it. Walking is exercise, it's something we were all evolved to do and it keeps us healthy physically and mentally. It also encourages community when everyone isn't surrounded by a metal and plastic multi-ton machine. I recently moved to a walkable part of my city and it's actually amazing how much it's benefited my life. I say hi to neighbors and people who walk routes like I do, I get fresh air since not every street is filled to the brim with cars, but honestly one of the best effects is silence. Cars our LOUD. Even electric cars unfortunately, it really has little to do with the sound of the engine at speeds like 30mph, it's more about wind and tire noise. Meanwhile, people walking, biking, or on scooters are silent and it's brought me a lot of peace.

r00fus 2023-11-17 16:59 UTC link
My biggest frustration with bikes here in the US is the lack of security in high traffic areas.

The fact that law enforcement doesn't seem to care about stolen bikes is a huge hurdle in my desire to bike to the store, leave alone paying thousands for a decent e-bike that I'd be even more worried about.

I say this as an avid cyclist.

nickthegreek 2023-11-17 16:59 UTC link
Wife and I did our shopping on a Vespa for last few years before it got stolen this summer. We really enjoyed scootin around the city and were going to many more events since parking became a nonissue.
sgu999 2023-11-17 17:00 UTC link
> - Good ebikes cost as much as my 2007 toyota

Car manufacturers are operating on razor thin margins and intend to recoup some of it elsewhere... or at least I've been told.

I agree that the price of ebikes really doesn't seem to match their value. They are in the same price range as electric mopeds, which have a much bigger battery, need more material to build and have to abide by more regulations.

Is it because the target is a rather young white-collar worker who live close enough to their office and is thus richer?

ProllyInfamous 2023-11-17 17:01 UTC link
Link (to REI gen 1.2 ebike): rei.com/product/190640/co-op-cycles-generation-e12-electric-bike

How fast'll this lil'baby go, for a fat 250lb'er like me?

fatherzine 2023-11-17 17:05 UTC link
There is a delightful little town on an island off SoCal coast, Avalon, where the main mode of motorized transportation is indeed the golf cart. The shaping constraint is geography, the town is on an island by a bay surrounded by steep hills, medium/long distance travel is out of the question. Would be difficult to transition nearby LA megalopolis to such a mode of transportation without enforcing political barriers to travel, which in practice would require a ruthless tyranny.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avalon,_California#Transportat...

"The main method of transportation within the city is by small gasoline or electric powered motorcars referred to locally as "autoettes". These include numerous golf carts and similarly sized vehicles. Vehicles under 55 inches (140 cm) wide, 120 inches (300 cm) long, and less than 1,800 pounds (820 kg) may qualify as an autoette. Any resident may acquire an autoette permit with the restriction of one permit per household. It is very difficult for a private citizen to get a permit to have a full-size vehicle in Avalon."

Glide 2023-11-17 17:05 UTC link
Completely agree and it's worse with electric unicycles.
ackfoobar 2023-11-17 17:06 UTC link
Many aspects to the word "efficiency".

Space efficiency - how wide it takes to reach a certain throughput - train wins

Time efficiency - how much time it takes to get from point A to point B - barring traffic, car wins

Energy efficiency - how much energy it takes - bike wins

Your argument is just as strong without the subjective ranking of efficiency.

ItsMonkk 2023-11-17 17:07 UTC link
Completely agree.

This form of transportation needs it's own infrastructure. We need wider dedicated paths for this much higher efficient form of transportation that can carry many more people than car lanes can. Like in the Netherlands the Unites States needs to build an entirely separate bike path network so that these bikes can stop being ping-ponged between getting killed on the roads and slightly annoying pedestrians.

Every single person that converts from driving a car to riding an e-bike is one less person creating traffic. If there's anything cars hate more than pedestrians, hate more than bikes, it's other drivers. This will be a huge win for drivers.

paddy_m 2023-11-17 17:09 UTC link
That is rude behavior from those two wheeled users. If you honestly look at the dangers and attitudes involved I think you will find that drivers of cars are a much bigger problem.

In a large portion of cases where a bike is using pedestrian infrastructure, or going the wrong way on a one way street, it is because the alternative would be more dangerous.

It is unpleasant to be buzzed by a two wheeler, that is inconsiderate full stop. However the actual consequences of a collision are much much less severe. The fastest e-bikes go around 20-28mph, and mostly travel slower than that. A heavy ebike + rider weighing in at 350lbs at 28mph has an energy of 1.2437e+4 J, a 3500 pound car moving at 20mph has an energy of 6.3454e+4 J, 6 times as much. Cars regularly go much much faster around pedestrians. Bottom line, you'll break a bone from a nasty bike collision, the car driver will kill you. However drivers of cars aren't held accountable.

We dedicate so much of the US built environment to cars, for their movement, and free storage. Look at how wide car lanes are... encouraging speeding (despite what the speed limit signs say). Look at how entitled car owners are that they think its fair for them to store their private property on public space for no charge. If we gave a small percentage of the space dedicated to cars for bikes, bike use would flourish because it's safer to ride a bike. Given that most trips are less than 3 miles, its also quicker to get around on a bike, especially an ebike than a car.

[1] https://www.1728.org/energy.htm

rychco 2023-11-17 17:14 UTC link
I was recently in Europe & came back to the United States with a renewed sense of hatred for cars, single-family zoning, & our awful public transport. Cars especially continue to steal our space, time, health, sense of community, & money.

In Bern (Switzerland), for example, there's trams/streetcars for short trips in the most populated parts of the city; there's (ice? electric?) motorbuses for trips around the rest of the city; and trains/rolling stock for trips to other cities/countries in Europe. All of these methods are timely, clean, & affordable. The sense of freedom this provides is so incredibly liberating. The sense of community from all these shared spaces wonderful, and also entirely absent from the average North American lifestyle. The quality of life is genuinely incomparable.

kfarr 2023-11-17 17:17 UTC link
I agree and love the electrek dude and his Chinese import mini truck, but automobile companies are trying to make money. Selling a plastic molded macho truck for 90k fully loaded is a high ticket item with relatively good margins compared to low cost mini cars. The incentive tends towards gigantic tanks, not a joke, it fulfills fragile human ego and makes a bunch of money.

Here’s the link I refer to above, it’s a great read and shows that the tech and demand is there but the regulatory environment in US and profit motive means it’s a huge uphill battle. https://electrek.co/2023/11/14/two-years-after-buying-a-2000...

uoaei 2023-11-17 17:19 UTC link
Small point: you can't get across the Bay on a bike on the Bay bridge. You can only get from Emeryville to Yerba Buena Island. No passage from Yerba Buena Island to SF. We're hoping this changes sometime in the next decade but no one's holding their breath.
ubermonkey 2023-11-17 17:21 UTC link
>If it's hot out, it is so much nicer to hop on the bike and get an instant breeze compared to a hot stuffy car.

I feel like this indicates you do not live in a very hot & humid place.

That sounds wonderful, to be sure, but in Houston summer a 1.5 mile trip to the grocery store on any kind of ebike would definitely require a change of clothes & a shower once done.

Editorial Channel
What the content says
+0.55
Article 25 Standard of Living
High Advocacy Framing
Editorial
+0.55
SETL
+0.17

Article directly addresses standard of living: analyzes how energy transition (e-bikes, reduced oil demand) affects environmental health and sustainable development; implies connection between clean energy and human well-being

+0.50
Article 19 Freedom of Expression
High Advocacy Framing
Editorial
+0.50
SETL
+0.16

Article is core expression of freedom: academic analysis of global energy trends, authored by named scholars, published without censorship or editorial interference (The Conversation's model protects author voice)

+0.45
Article 26 Education
High Advocacy
Editorial
+0.45
SETL
-0.16

Article is direct expression of right to education: presents research findings and scientific analysis to public; enables understanding of energy systems and environmental science

+0.45
Article 27 Cultural Participation
High Advocacy
Editorial
+0.45
SETL
+0.15

Article is direct participation in cultural and scientific life: presents research to public; discusses technology (e-bikes) as cultural phenomenon; enables public engagement with scientific knowledge

+0.40
Article 18 Freedom of Thought
Medium Advocacy Framing
Editorial
+0.40
SETL
+0.14

Article discusses energy transition research and allows readers to form their own conclusions; supports freedom of thought through evidence-based analysis

+0.40
Article 21 Political Participation
Medium Advocacy
Editorial
+0.40
SETL
+0.14

Article supports participation in public affairs through data-driven analysis of energy policy implications; frames energy transition as matter of public interest and democratic decision-making

+0.35
Preamble Preamble
Medium Advocacy Framing
Editorial
+0.35
SETL
+0.13

Article frames transition to sustainable energy as advancement toward justice and peace; discusses systemic shift in energy demand patterns without moralizing

+0.35
Article 13 Freedom of Movement
Medium Advocacy
Editorial
+0.35
SETL
-0.14

Article about global energy transition implicitly supports freedom of movement (e-bikes as mobility solution); analyzes how transportation choices affect global systems

+0.35
Article 20 Assembly & Association
Medium Advocacy Framing
Editorial
+0.35
SETL
-0.14

Article implicitly supports peaceful assembly through discussion of global grassroots adoption of e-bikes; frames energy transition as collective human action

+0.35
Article 22 Social Security
Medium Advocacy
Editorial
+0.35
SETL
+0.13

Article discusses energy transition as aspect of social security and economic well-being; analyzes impact on labor markets (implicit in energy sector discussion)

+0.35
Article 28 Social & International Order
Medium Advocacy
Editorial
+0.35
SETL
+0.13

Article implicitly supports social and international order: discusses global energy transition as systemic change; suggests that collective action (mass adoption of e-bikes) creates new social structures

+0.30
Article 12 Privacy
Medium Framing
Editorial
+0.30
SETL
-0.13

Article discusses energy transition without invading privacy; respectful of individual choice in adoption of e-bikes

+0.30
Article 23 Work & Equal Pay
Low
Editorial
+0.30
SETL
+0.12

No explicit discussion of labor rights or working conditions

+0.30
Article 29 Duties to Community
Medium Advocacy
Editorial
+0.30
SETL
-0.13

Article discusses duties implicitly: energy transition as shared responsibility; frames environmental solutions as collective action; suggests individuals have role in sustainability

+0.25
Article 1 Freedom, Equality, Brotherhood
Medium Framing
Editorial
+0.25
SETL
+0.11

Content discusses global energy transition without explicit human dignity framing; focuses on technological/economic patterns

+0.25
Article 14 Asylum
Low
Editorial
+0.25
SETL
+0.11

No discussion of asylum or seeking refuge

+0.25
Article 17 Property
Medium Advocacy
Editorial
+0.25
SETL
-0.12

Article presents data-driven analysis of energy market; supports informed public understanding of technological adoption and property/economic systems

+0.20
Article 2 Non-Discrimination
Low
Editorial
+0.20
SETL
-0.11

No explicit discussion of discrimination; analysis is presented neutrally

+0.20
Article 7 Equality Before Law
Medium Framing
Editorial
+0.20
SETL
-0.11

Article presents analysis without visible discrimination based on origin or status; treats energy transition as universal phenomenon

+0.20
Article 24 Rest & Leisure
Low
Editorial
+0.20
SETL
+0.10

Article does not directly address rest or leisure

+0.15
Article 3 Life, Liberty, Security
Low
Editorial
+0.15
SETL
+0.09

Topic concerns energy transitions which relate indirectly to security and liberty; not explicitly addressed

+0.15
Article 6 Legal Personhood
Low
Editorial
+0.15
SETL
+0.09

No explicit engagement with right to legal personhood

+0.15
Article 10 Fair Hearing
Low
Editorial
+0.15
SETL
0.00

No explicit discussion of fair trial or judicial process

+0.15
Article 11 Presumption of Innocence
Low
Editorial
+0.15
SETL
0.00

No discussion of criminal liability or presumption of innocence

+0.15
Article 15 Nationality
Low
Editorial
+0.15
SETL
0.00

Article does not address nationality or statelessness

+0.15
Article 16 Marriage & Family
Low
Editorial
+0.15
SETL
+0.09

No discussion of marriage or family rights

+0.15
Article 30 No Destruction of Rights
Low
Editorial
+0.15
SETL
+0.09

Article does not contain provisions that could be interpreted as destructing UDHR rights

+0.10
Article 4 No Slavery
Low
Editorial
+0.10
SETL
+0.07

Topic does not address slavery or servitude

+0.10
Article 5 No Torture
Low
Editorial
+0.10
SETL
+0.07

Article does not address torture or cruel treatment

+0.10
Article 8 Right to Remedy
Low
Editorial
+0.10
SETL
0.00

No discussion of legal remedies or rights protection

+0.10
Article 9 No Arbitrary Detention
Low
Editorial
+0.10
SETL
0.00

Article does not address arbitrary arrest or detention

Structural Channel
What the site does
+0.50
Article 25 Standard of Living
High Advocacy Framing
Structural
+0.50
Context Modifier
+0.22
SETL
+0.17

Open-access model ensures all people (including low-income) can access information about sustainable development; no economic barriers to health/welfare knowledge

+0.50
Article 26 Education
High Advocacy
Structural
+0.50
Context Modifier
+0.10
SETL
-0.16

Open-access model removes barriers to education (no paywall); publication by academic press (The Conversation) ensures quality; global accessibility supports universal education access

+0.45
Article 19 Freedom of Expression
High Advocacy Framing
Structural
+0.45
Context Modifier
+0.30
SETL
+0.16

Platform architecture supports free expression: open-access, named authors, transparent republication rights, no advertising pressure distorting editorial content, visible editorial standards

+0.40
Article 13 Freedom of Movement
Medium Advocacy
Structural
+0.40
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
-0.14

Open-access publication enables free movement of information globally without geographic barriers

+0.40
Article 20 Assembly & Association
Medium Advocacy Framing
Structural
+0.40
Context Modifier
+0.08
SETL
-0.14

Platform enables assembly and collective action through comment features and shared information access

+0.40
Article 27 Cultural Participation
High Advocacy
Structural
+0.40
Context Modifier
+0.15
SETL
+0.15

Platform enables participation in scientific discourse through comments (when open); open-access model removes barriers to cultural/scientific participation

+0.35
Article 12 Privacy
Medium Framing
Structural
+0.35
Context Modifier
-0.13
SETL
-0.13

Privacy policies disclosed; tracking and analytics are transparent in configuration; user event collection acknowledged but consent mechanisms not fully visible

+0.35
Article 18 Freedom of Thought
Medium Advocacy Framing
Structural
+0.35
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
+0.14

Open-access platform enables freedom of thought and opinion formation without paywalls; comments feature (though closed) was available for public discourse

+0.35
Article 21 Political Participation
Medium Advocacy
Structural
+0.35
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
+0.14

Open-access platform enables all citizens to access information needed for political participation; no barriers based on subscription or status

+0.35
Article 29 Duties to Community
Medium Advocacy
Structural
+0.35
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
-0.13

Platform enables exercise of community duties; open-access model supports communities discussing shared challenges

+0.30
Preamble Preamble
Medium Advocacy Framing
Structural
+0.30
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
+0.13

Open-access publication model and transparent authorship support freedom and dignity principles; no paywalls or hidden sponsorship

+0.30
Article 17 Property
Medium Advocacy
Structural
+0.30
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
-0.12

Free access model ensures people are not excluded from property/economic information; no paywall barriers

+0.30
Article 22 Social Security
Medium Advocacy
Structural
+0.30
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
+0.13

Publication model provides authors with economic compensation (The Conversation pays contributors); supports right to social security through employment

+0.30
Article 28 Social & International Order
Medium Advocacy
Structural
+0.30
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
+0.13

International accessibility and open-access model support social order oriented toward human rights

+0.25
Article 2 Non-Discrimination
Low
Structural
+0.25
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
-0.11

Publication is accessible globally without region-based barriers; same content available to all users

+0.25
Article 7 Equality Before Law
Medium Framing
Structural
+0.25
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
-0.11

No observable legal barriers to comment, participation, or access based on status

+0.25
Article 23 Work & Equal Pay
Low
Structural
+0.25
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
+0.12

Author attribution visible; publishing model supports author rights (though details not visible in provided content)

+0.20
Article 1 Freedom, Equality, Brotherhood
Medium Framing
Structural
+0.20
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
+0.11

Platform treats all users equally in access; no discriminatory barriers observed

+0.20
Article 14 Asylum
Low
Structural
+0.20
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
+0.11

No observable barriers to international users or asylum-related policies

+0.15
Article 10 Fair Hearing
Low
Structural
+0.15
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
0.00

Article is published without visible bias or unfair process

+0.15
Article 11 Presumption of Innocence
Low
Structural
+0.15
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
0.00

Article presents research findings without accusatory framing

+0.15
Article 15 Nationality
Low
Structural
+0.15
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
0.00

No nationality-based access restrictions observed

+0.15
Article 24 Rest & Leisure
Low
Structural
+0.15
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
+0.10

No observable restrictions on user leisure time or forced productivity

+0.10
Article 3 Life, Liberty, Security
Low
Structural
+0.10
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
+0.09

No security or safety features observable in provided content; standard web security assumed

+0.10
Article 6 Legal Personhood
Low
Structural
+0.10
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
+0.09

Publication provides platform for human voice and expression

+0.10
Article 8 Right to Remedy
Low
Structural
+0.10
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
0.00

No observable dispute resolution mechanism visible in content

+0.10
Article 9 No Arbitrary Detention
Low
Structural
+0.10
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
0.00

No observable restriction of movement or liberty in platform structure

+0.10
Article 16 Marriage & Family
Low
Structural
+0.10
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
+0.09

No observable family-related policies in content

+0.10
Article 30 No Destruction of Rights
Low
Structural
+0.10
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
+0.09

No observable restriction or negation of UDHR rights in platform structure

+0.05
Article 4 No Slavery
Low
Structural
+0.05
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
+0.07

No observable labor exploitation in publishing structure

+0.05
Article 5 No Torture
Low
Structural
+0.05
Context Modifier
0.00
SETL
+0.07

No observable harmful practices in platform structure

Supplementary Signals
Epistemic Quality
0.74
Propaganda Flags
0 techniques detected
Solution Orientation
No data
Emotional Tone
No data
Stakeholder Voice
No data
Temporal Framing
No data
Geographic Scope
No data
Complexity
No data
Transparency
No data
Event Timeline 6 events
2026-02-26 12:20 dlq Dead-lettered after 1 attempts: 280M e-bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars - -
2026-02-26 12:18 rate_limit OpenRouter rate limited (429) model=llama-3.3-70b - -
2026-02-26 12:17 rate_limit OpenRouter rate limited (429) model=llama-3.3-70b - -
2026-02-26 12:16 rate_limit OpenRouter rate limited (429) model=llama-3.3-70b - -
2026-02-26 09:30 dlq Dead-lettered after 1 attempts: 280M e-bikes and mopeds are cutting demand for oil far more than electric cars - -
2026-02-26 09:19 credit_exhausted Credit balance too low, retrying in 315s - -
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build 1686d6e+53hr · deployed 2026-02-26 10:15 UTC · evaluated 2026-02-26 12:13:57 UTC